By - Professor-Reddit
Megathread is back as the Ukrainian offenses are going on and the pace is high.
Also, to the doomers out there:
The Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to do just fine in the 4 months since last you paid attention to the war, so please read up on the backlog instead of picking up the pieces right where you left them in April.
New megathread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/xbbqh2/megathread_russian_invasion_of_ukraine_d199/)
Fash mods became benevolent dictators and finally brought back the Ukraine threads??? 😱🤯
So, why does one even want to be a pro-Russian seperatist around 2014? And now that they've got to experience Putin ravaging their assholes, how do you think many of the separatists are feeling now?
There are large russian populations living in EU countries that _still_ want those countries to become russia. Being buttfucked by mother russia comes with the territory
> why does one even want to be a pro-Russian seperatist around 2014?
Russia has a decent history of bribing people. It's always possible to get a few. Some would argue they've wrecked havoc in the US by doing this getting us everything from Trump to Bernie to Vietnam protesters to the curtailing on nuclear energy.
There's a bit more to it as well. The region is Russian speaking but it's also Yanukovych's hometown.
Always get a kick out of the fact that the separatists have a Sparta Battalion based on the literal fucking Spartans from Metro.
Glukhovsky was very unhappy about that, if I recall correctly. I think the games even changed the logo in Metro Exodus because the Battalion uses the Sparta logo from the first two games.
Oh yeah, those games are made in Kyiv
Yeah, but the author is Russian, although [publicly been supporting the Ukrainian side since the beginning](https://www.instagram.com/p/ChqmSO0Ld9f/?igshid=MDJmNzVkMjY=), meaning he is very much a wanted man in Russia.
What are the best case scenarios for Putin right now? Hope that Ukraine runs out of steam before they take out the south and then start trying to negotiate peace? He'd have to pressure the west to stop supporting Ukraine with a mix of wanting to stop the war and offering gas for it, but so far using energy hasn't really worked out.
using gas to have the EU pressure Ukraine into a premature peace deal seems to be their only leverage, but it's seemingly not working very well
maybe it'll work better in ca. 2-3 months when it gets colder in europe, but who knows if they'll even have troops in Ukraine at that point.
maybe they'll have to draw up general mobilization, and who knows what kind of shit show that will trigger
>using gas to have the EU pressure Ukraine into a premature peace deal seems to be their only leverage, but it's seemingly not working very well
How? He is not sending gas, how can he pressure more?
Best case scenario is hold his ground and maybe get deal making Crimea officailly Russian or other bs.
>How? He is not sending gas, how can he pressure more?
russia is still sending some gas, or otherwise they can offer gas supplies restarting in case a peace deal is signed
>How? He is not sending gas, how can he pressure more?
Wait, and hope for a really cold winter
I mean, I think it's pretty clear now that he overreached in the initial invasion and subsequently overplayed his hand in trying to scare off NATO/EU support. His 'best case' is that economic turmoil from energy sanctions leads to more pro-Russian (or at least narrowly self-interested) political leadership coming to power in Europe and cutting off support for Ukraine unless they make a deal that lets Putin secure some kind of face-saving settlement. The problem as far as I can tell is that maximalist ambitions plus leaning too hard on gas for leverage pushed Europe from "this war is very inconvenient" to "existential threat mode", so no one is likely to win a European election on a platform of accommodating Russia.
>political leadership coming to power in Europe and cutting off support for Ukraine unless they make a deal that lets Putin secure some kind of face-saving settlement.
This would take years.
Probably hope that the war devolves into a stalemate like pre-invasion Donbas and then annex the separatists and the occupied territories when the West gets bored with the whole thing.
seems to be founded on really non-evident assumptions, unless this is a 2-year plan and the 2024 election goes really south
[I am getting word that in order to realize these massive gains in territory the AFU have had to sacrifice some of their men at a casualty rate this person just yanked out of their ass.](https://twitter.com/rwapodcast/status/1568651959485308935?s=46&t=Ppf0JSzgjpjK7AghKD8Jdw)
The Kiev regime has truly sunk to a new low.
My source is I made it the fuck up!
Russians always claim catastrophic Ukrainian casualties no matter what happens. The fact that your troops would have to be fucking robots to advance at this pace while taking 10:1 casualties apparently didn't cross their mind.
"10:1" - yeah that sounds alright
Yep, everyone knows that the moment Ukrainian soldiers enter a city abandoned by the Russians, some of them just spontaneously die on the spot, its not as if those oft cited higher casualty rates for attacks have to be inflicted by a competent defence.
It’s hilarious and famously untrue. In a retreat (as this clearly is given the rate the UFA is advancing) the defenders always incur disproportionate casualties.
ISW's Key Takeaways from September 10ths Operations
1. Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv Oblast are collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis, and Ukrainian forces will likely recapture Izyum itself in the next 48 hours.
2. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the withdrawal of troops from the Balakliya-Izyum line on September 10, and the Russian MoD’s failure to set effective information conditions is collapsing the Russian information space.
3. The withdrawal announcement and occupation authorities’ failure to organize evacuation measures is further alienating the Russian milblogger and Russian nationalist communities that support the Kremlin’s grandiose vision of capturing the entirety of Ukraine.
4. Ukrainian forces reached positions within 15–25km of the Russo-Ukrainian border in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, Izyum’s northern outskirts, and Lyman’s south and southwestern outskirts, and captured the western half of Kupyansk.
5. Russian forces are reinforcing frontline positions in Kherson Oblast while Ukrainian forces conduct positional battles and continue their interdiction campaign against Russian logistics lines.
6. Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults north of Kharkiv City, south of Bakhmut, and west of Donetsk City.
7. Russian recruitment drives are generating some criticism among Russian milbloggers and regions.
8. Russian forces are reportedly intensifying filtration measures in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts in response to Ukrainian counteroffensives on the Southern Axis.
Confirmed that Ukraine has retaken Izyum
planning next summer's trip to ukraine https://en.wikivoyage.org/wiki/Crimea
How the F was russia not prepared for this? Ukraine literally announced they were doing this 2 weeks ago.
No, the Ukrainians announced they would attack in a completely other part of the country, and the Russians took the bait, hook and sinker.
they also saw some successes in the bait attack tho
It takes awhile for the high command to change their views. They have like weekends and vacation plans and set meetings and all that.
We've seen that a lot in the US as well. The US was convinced that the war would go to an insurgency phase weeks after it was clear Ukraine would keep things conventional. A lot of the generals are older and take awhile to process things and they're also well off and have large families/life isn't just about work you know, normies have other stuff to do besides lurking reddit.
at what point do the russians give up?
I have a better question
Say that the Ukrainian army retakes all the territory, including Crimea, and Russia doesn't surrender.
Does Ukraine hunker down and reinforce the border or do they march towards Moscow to pressure then into a white peace?
You're being facetious surely
The million dollar question
Russians are so bad, it makes you wonder if Paradox int. programmed their AI
Proof reality is a simulation
How many day 1 objectives had Russia achieved as of last week? As of now?
That Crimea water canal. Maybe
What even were their day 1 objectives?
My guess would a line stretching from Kherson-Melitopol in the south, and Hostomel-Chernihiv-Sumy-Kharkiv-Kupyansk-Starobilsk in the north
well, i'll assume crossing the border was a day 1 objective... so atleast that one... for now
200 days in and Russian supply lines are STILL shit lol
Mods be like
Yall can have a lil megathread, as a treat
Keep in mind that a military coup in Russia could lead to someone who wants to double down on the invasion. Not that Putin doesn't seem to be headed that direction already...
> Keep in mind that a military coup in Russia could lead to someone who wants to double down on the invasion.
With which troops?
Honestly, Russia haven't started drafting civilians yet.
A warhawk Russian can mobilize hundreds of thousands
If Putin thought he had the political support for that, he would have done it.
They haven't, but they have wasted tons of irreplaceable materiel, both tanks and planes.
Additionally, they don't have the logistics network to support that kind of mass mobilisation.
A military coup would be very unlikely to double down because their biggest immediate threat would be the repercussions from another disaster like the present one.
The real issue is how a coup government would balance needing the military to both create the appearance of strength abroad and provide security to the regime.
yeah, Putin being gone doesn't mean everything is magically good. could get better, could get worse
you can tell it's not a russian tank if (moves && shoots)
Seems like there's a [bit of opsec clampdown](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xaz7i0/important_official_request_for_media_blackout_of/) again from ukraine re troop movements in east
Guess we’ll have to rely on Russian cope channels to give us an approximation
Folks, we are officially on
of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and *Russia STILL does not even have air superiority.*
Oh man even Kadyrov is coping hard lmfao
"I don't need a ride. I need ammo."
Virgin Ghani vs Chad Zelensky
Remember how hyped Russia's cyber warfare capablities were before the war?
Russia has repeatedly caught people with their pants down. Since then IT has spent a lot of time adapting to the Russian methods and their best hackers and IT professionals have fled.
Russia is not the cutting edge cyberwarfare superpower they were for a brief period. Everyone got used to their tricks.
Remember how hyped all their capabilities were? This sub unanimously believed Ukraine would get rolled by arty in days. Even after the invasion had seemed to be a failure a week in, there were users in these megathread saying Kyiv is flooded with Russian tanks and we just don’t know it yet.
The russian govt will give out so much lada-money to grieving families, the inflationary impact will rival turkyes economic policy
Going through news withdrawal.
Ukraine has liberated an area larger than Delaware.
Hopefully the area is better/nicer than Delaware
Look out, Dark Brandon is standing behind u
Joe Biden will remember this
Yeah but Ukraine is a real place.
This is the work of темний брендон
How many Ukrainians were forcibly relocated into Russia?
Peace terms have to include repatriation but there may be thousands at least lost forever :( I hope that doesn’t happen and we get them all back
I think it’s 4 million or so have been deported
How the hell are they going to get them back
That is like 1-A levels crimes against humanity
This isn't the first Russian rodeo resettling millions. If they get their way, they'll never get them back
Population exchanges, but perhaps most likely sanctions relief. If you want an economy, return the people
Who would the Ukrainians give back?
Collaborators and pro-Russia persons. It won’t be nearly enough though, so sanction relief will be the primary means of repatriation
This would be aside from PoW exchanges?
That [Change.org petition](https://www.change.org/p/%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%BC-%D0%B3%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%83-%D1%85%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE-%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%8F-%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%83%D1%89%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%82%D1%8C-%D1%81%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%8E-%D0%BC%D0%B5%D1%87%D1%82%D1%83-%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B5%D1%85%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8C-%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8C-%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%81) to send Khabarovsk governor Dektyarev to fight in Donbass has now 18k signatures. He said he really wants to go but can't leave because duty and stuff
[absolutely awesome flowchart on how to identify Russian armor ](https://twitter.com/livfaustdiejung/status/1568815516675936256?s=46&t=vsZUEzwFEWTdGzrg9NgzQg)
Cant you just check if It’s on fire or not?
I thought there would be more flows to broken treads and burning hulls
[Master P](https://youtu.be/UAorHyqhhBU) says he's sorry, but the sight of so many ruined tanks has left him unable to spit fire.
^("I thought I had no limit," he was reported as saying softly, to himself.)
And detached turrets
Pinged members of OSINT group.
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Did people think it was just some sort of wild coincidence that liberalism took over the world?
And why wouldn't you support the liberal new world order? Do they not like winning? 😎🌐
Just because liberalism returns good results doesn't mean it will always be there. It requires constant vigilance to keep tyrants like Trump or Putin at bay
If our form of electing representatives wasn't as pathetic as it is, people like trump would have a much harder time winning
It was a nefarious plot by (((shills))) to... *check notes*... increase prosperity, peace and stability
[This video just never gets old](https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1568675893131845634?cxt=HHwWhIC9nbyah8UrAAAA).
I’m here in Ukrainian-occupied Moscow
Putin: my northeastern front left me 😔
Look guys, Ukraine won’t be able to withstand an invasion. It’s better we just cut our losses and focus on China. Good luck Ukraine
Something subtle but interesting is that with Charles becoming king Ukraine chose to forgo the long standing Russian tradition of referring to royalty with that name as Karl, in both Ukrainian and Russian spoken inside Ukraine. They're using Charles instead just like in the UK, explicitly for that reason. It's pretty cool how it kind of symbolizes the bond between Ukraine and the UK. This kind of divergence is gonna be happening more and more I think
Meanwhile in Russia they've been referring to him as Karl and I was very confused what Karl they were talking about until yesterday lol Meduza wrote an [article ](https://meduza.io/cards/byl-prints-charlz-stal-korol-karl-a-nelzya-bylo-oboytis-bez-etoy-putanitsy-chem-ploh-charlz-iii)explaining the whole thing but basically it's a centuries long attempt to unify the names of historical figures from different nations, referring to them all by the same name(Johann, John, Jean and Juan are all referred to as Ioan for example). Except the rules aren't set in stone so this causes a ton of confusion and many Russian historians are too set in their ways for it to change. It's not a strictly Russian thing tho, Belarus and Poland also have certain historical names rules
SUMMON THE ELECTOR COUNTS
In Germany they not only use the English name variants but the English words *King* and *Queen*, as well. Very peculiar.
Yeah that doesn't surprise me, German is full of anglicisms that can be used alongside the German words. I think it's also to avoid the whole issue of referring to modern royals by their English names while keeping the old ones for the historical royals and ending up with no continuation
Apparently the Spanish refer to him as Carlos
That makes sense given the dual names of Karl V / Carlos I back in the day.
> yeah sex is great but have you ever seen the armed forces of the Russian federation suffer repeated defeats in the Kharkiv region?
*Don't ever talk to her or Kherson again.*
People who don't realise that the K is silent won't get this joke 😔
There's only one way this war is heading....concessions from the Ukranian side.
No Ukrainian flag atop the Kremlin 😭
I agree. Zelensky probably won’t be able to stake a claim on Kaliningrad 😔
(And lol on the downvoters)
It's a beautiful morning in Kherson!
> Babe, wake up, Ukraine took 15 towns I can't pronounce.
Me @ my fiance 😔
nato flairs should admit that a major ukrainian counter-offensive is pure hopium
What do you mean?
It’s a joke on some tankie-takes from the earlier days of the war. Hard to believe how far we’ve came.
Seems to be the case.
Gentlemen I’m pleased to announce that because of the demonstrated ineffectiveness of hyper-masculine Russian soldiers, the US military will begin to phase out its current manpower with the goal of attaining an all-femboy force by 2035.
I thought suicide troops were a Geneva violation.
Fembois and femboi drones uwu
Any coup or rebellion inside of Russia is highly unethical and imperialist.
Will you westerners not think about the people of India? Putin has been a good friend to India. Further, Indians are poor and need Russian Oil to combat inflation.
Further, India has recently lowered border-tensions with China and dropped out of the Biden Administration's new trade pact so the importance of a strong India-friendly autocrat in Russia is all the more important.
Will you not think of the poor people in India? Why be so selfish?
Why do you hate the global Indian?
> Just stunning today to watch the total collapse of a once great power that was dominant for much of the 20th century and was still considered truly formidable by many up until recently. Of course, I'm referring to Nebraska
But but Russia had the more masculine military recruitment ads....
Another victim of toxic masculinity ✊🏻😔
Precisley another approx. ~55k victims of it
I think it's time for Putin to be a big manly man and lead the troops personally from the front
They must have a few operational IL-76's still left, how about he airdrop to Hostomel
It's even funnier the... 5th? Time
Nicholas II moment
And then pull an Idriss Déby.
Zelenskyi did it time of crisis so Putin should do it also.
Anyone please have a map? I am having a really hard time properly appreciating the recent gains.
out of date, Ukraine took Izium
Been asleep for 197 days. What happened?
Russia found out.
Because they f-ked around.
Been a sleep for 7h, what happened?
Not much honestly
Putin's family moved to Zelenskyi's house
It's 2pm rn and I'm still in bed reading the news 😴
I better see you type "Good morning" in 3h then 🤬
How about now? 🙄 Good morning 😤
Awe, good morning to you too 🥰
It's the afternoon here 🤬
Wqit... did you mean it was 2.00 or 14.00?
Actually closer to 3 now 😩
Noswedish speaker knows wtf am/pm means 😒
Finland and Ukraine are now neighbors
Moscow people republic.
According to several accounts, one of the Russian soldiers in Balakliia named Buba blew himself up after saying goodbye to his comrades on radio.
Which is fine by me, I just hope he didn't take any Ukrainians with him.
There is rumours crisis inside Kremlin. https://twitter.com/RusiAlpo/status/1568709635170877444?s=20 Rusi is pretty legendary Finnish diplomat so not just random Twitter person.
Structurally the English translation almost reads like a Q drop. Not commenting on it's veracity or anything 🤷♀️
Don't do that. Don't give me hope.
Is he implying the army might be ready to stage a coup….?
Army is too weak at the moment if there is coup it is FSB.
What is the K bridge? Kerch?
My problem with that is if instead of leaving Ukraine they actually run the war a little bit more competently.
\>doesnt speak Finnish
Many such cases
roughly 280K such cases, in fact
The information "from the inside" speaks of a serious crisis between Putin and the army, although perhaps there is not yet a coordinated hijacking threat (rumor?). A 25 km long motorcade leaving Crimea via the K-bridge? Ukraine advancing rapidly in occupied territories (fact). Putin's system collapsing?
I really want this to be true, so i ~~will be very sceptical until further proof~~ take it as 100% fact
"Kaappaus" here would translate more clearly as "coup" than "hijacking", it was just shortened from "vallankaappaus" for twitter.
Twitter for a long time now has had a native translation button right on the Tweet itself that works decently enough to get the general message across.
I dont have twitter, nrither account or app, not sure on that
Create one with a doge profile picture
Ok, I am blooming too much, what is the most credible reason to not think Ukraine won't just march into Donetsk and Luhansk in like a week?
Some of the lines there are very old and well dug in. Further, that's one of the few areas in Ukraine that has tall hills or tiny mountains:
So the terrain isn't great.
That said, in the area around Severodonetsk they've probably abandoned their older positions so a fast push in those directions could still do a lot.
It depends on if the Russians can actually reach and occupy those formations in time in sufficient numbers. Of course, that’s if Ukraine decides they have the resources to pursue rather than consolidate their current gains.
Also Russian morale is very low. How tough are those formations going to be manned by guys that just abandoned the frontlines?
I mean Russian artillery still exists. It's weaker sure but they didn't just run out like a cartoon.
Yeah, but how many functional artillery pieces did they have sitting that far behind the front line, with teams ready to operate them, and munitions stocked close by to supply them?
A lot probably
They'll outrun their supply lines.
And people need sleep.
>The "Ukraine will fall" bad takes matter because they dominated the discourse and likely slowed down much needed defensive aid to Ukraine, because the allies were worried advanced weapons would end up in the hands of the Russians. So yes, bad takes cost lives.
As did all the idiots denying that Russia will invade. Greenwald, Snowden.
Atleast snowden had the decency to stfu
Too little, too late from that fucking traitor.
Lyman being liberated literally opens up the entirety of northern Luhansk to a Ukrainian counter offensive
I think this point they can just flank whole eastern front and free fresh troops to attack. It is like total Russian collapse.
Just imagine the quality of a Ken Burn’s doc on this.
Looking through Pikabu (closest Russian equivalent to reddit) rn and hooooly hell people are angry that Ukrainians who collaborated with Russia aren't being evacuated. Widespread agreement that this is hypocritical given that the whole point of the 'special military operation' is (at least according to Putin, whom a lot of them still support) to protect pro-Russian citizens in Ukraine.
Tons of highly upvoted anti-Putin comments and posts too, which is seriously impressive given how heavily censored the site is.
from a certain POV those Russians are somewhat right in that complaint
the second thing is more interesting. by anti putin as criticizing the regime or his handling of events?
I mean, they are stupidly naive, but given what they were fed they are at least somewhat moral
Maybe Reddit will finally learn it's not a war crime to kill retreating troops now that ukraine is doing it